Would Graham Mertz Have Succeeded in the Dairy Raid?

One of the interesting parts of my job coaching football over here is quite often I'm asked to go out to the locals schools and introduce the kids to american football, and this morning was one of those occasions. To get to this school would either be a short ride by public transportation or a brisk 45 minute walk. Being the portly gentleman that I am I decided I could use the exercise and I used the opportunity to catch up on one of the many quality Wisconsin football podcasts that are available. This morning I happened to be listening to the Buck Around, a Wisconsin football podcast from a fan's perspective, and the hosts were taking listener questions. One of the questions really stood out to me, and so much so that it's pretty much all I thought of during the hour I was supposed to be focused on crafting the minds of a bunch of fourth graders. So much so that on my way home I needed to record my thoughts while they were still fresh in my mind. That video is linked below, but the question was:

Would Graham Mertz have succeeded in the new Wisconsin offense if he decided to stay instead of transferring to Florida? Would we have seen the same level of quarterback play we saw from him in the past? Would he have been as good as Tanner Mordecai, etc?

It is no secret that over the years I have been a very vocal critic of the Wisconsin offense and especially the quarterback play. As much as it was labeled pro style I always felt it wasn't quarterback friendly and year after year I saw no improvement at the position. I saw highly touted prospects come in from Curt Phillips to Austin Kafentzis and everyone in between either transfer or fail to develop into something to be excited about. During Graham Mertz's recruiting I was convinced that even though he was committed strongly to Wisconsin that he would end up at Notre Dame because my pessimistic attitude was why would a blue chip QB pick Wisconsin. But he did, and he stuck with that commitment. Even after throwing five TD passes in the Army All American Game he stayed committed and we got him on campus. When he arrived he was by far, from a skill set point of view, the best QB prospect the program had ever brought in as a high school recruit and overall probably right behind Russell Wilson. This brought along hype and an expectation that he would turn the offense around and take us to a new level. Anything less by many was seen as a complete failure.

There were plenty of Wisconsin fans who didn't want him to succeed, and when he didn't, that fed into the criticism. "Fans" would say his attitude is the reason why he lost games. I don't know what people were expecting from a blue chip QB. A "yes ma'am no ma'am" golden child who was as happy helping old ladies across the street as he was turning around and handing the ball of 50 times a game? No, he was a QB who wanted to throw the ball because he had a big arm and he wanted to show it off and win football games. Graham Mertz was confident, but he was always the first person to come out and take blame for his mistakes. He always got in front of the media and said what was on his mind. He was the first one to take blame and the first one to deflect praise. He was confident in himself because, as a quarterback, you should lead by example, and that attitude is infectious. And like it or lump it that is the way football is going. Not only are players not going to hide behind their facemasks and shy away from the limelight, but coaches are embracing it and doing the same thing. Get used to it because Coach Prime is only the first Coach Prime and if you think Graham Mertz had swagger wait until Nick Evers or Mabry Mettauer get behind center. Luke Fickell came out to Wisconsin to win a championship, and that should be the goal at Wisconsin football. It shouldn't be to win the Citrus Bowl or the Music City Bowl or the Pinstripe Bowl; it should be to win a championship. That's a mentality that you have to have, and that's a mentality Graham Mertz had and still has at Florida.

But it just didn't work out. There are a laundry list of factors as to why it didn't work out, and I could bore you with listing all of them so here is the Cliff Notes version. First and foremost, Paul Chryst didn't do his job. As a Head Coach, play caller, and quarterback coach he failed Graham by not building an offense around his skill set. We could have still been Wisconsin football with a gunslinger QB, putting the pro in pro style. Instead, he stuck essentially same old offense that had been in place since the Barry Alvarez days. When you have a quarterback with dynamic skills and fail to utilize them then you set him up for failure. Look at his first start against Illinois back in 2020 and the game plan they ran. They spread Illinois out more formationally than Wisconsin has ever done in the past, utilizing the quick passing game and getting the ball out into space efficiently and damn if it didn't work as he racked up five touchdowns against a B1G team with near perfect completion percentage. What a great way to start your new starting QB off with a bang and to find a way to maximize his talents. Maybe Paul Chryst felt bad because we never saw that offense again. He reverted to old habits, stopped taking shots, and only took them when everyone knew they were coming, making it easy for defenses to predict.

I've been critical of Paul Chryst for as long as I can remember. His so-called "record-setting" offense was all well and good when we were up against weaker teams like Indiana and Northwestern, but honestly, it should be. I mean, it's pretty easy to look good when you're clearly more talented than the other guys on the field. For all his reputation as a player's coach (and I do believe his players loved him), Chryst had this tendency to stick with the tried and tested, and unless he was pushed into it,he rarely trusted the younger players to step up.

In 2020 when hit our receiving corps, and Graham got hit with COVID the offense suddenly regressed to this basic, simplified version that felt more at home against the mediocre teams we used to feast on. Even when Graham was healthy, he seemed to be stuck with unathletic personnel groupings. Instead of letting the young, athletic players have a shot at making some plays, Chryst opted for the safer, simpler route. This led to predictability and stagnation in our playcalling, and unfortunately, it spilled over into the following seasons.

Another big reason why Graham Mertz had such a rough time in Madison was that he seemed to be trying too hard. With the limited opportunities he had in an offense that wasn't exactly quarterback-friendly, it was like asking a gunslinger to holster his weapon. Now, don't get me wrong; Graham was confident, maybe even too confident at times. But that confidence sometimes led him to take shots downfield, even when the plays weren't set up for it. In an offense that wasn't exactly designed to cater to his strengths he started to force things, trying to make something out of nothing. This led to a string of bad games where he just couldn't find his rhythm. It was like a pitcher who's lost his fastball; he kept going for the big plays even when they weren't there. The system and the circumstances sort of got in his head, and when you're constantly in a position where you have to overcompensate, it's tough to perform at your best.

Even after a bit of a rebound in 2022 you could see the writing on the way. With Coach Chryst heading for the exit the would-be senior was at a crossroads. Stay in Madison and hit the reset button, learning a new offensive system with new teammates surrouned by the same scrutiny and criticism, or opt for a clean slate in a new location, where everything was brand new and untarnished. As much as I would have loved to see him stick around, I believe he made the right call. Sometimes, a change of scenery can do wonders, especially when you're a senior quarterback trying to make your mark. The weight of expectations and the burden of past criticisms can be tough to shoulder, and starting fresh in a different environment can be a liberating experience.

Now, let's dive into the million-dollar question: Would Graham Mertz's skill set have meshed well with Phil Longo's offense? The answer, from a football perspective, is yes. He had the potential to excel. You see, Phil Longo's offensive philosophy is all about putting athletes in space, and that's an environment where Graham Mertz could have truly shone. But physical skillset for as valuable as it is is only half the story. Longo's well known mantra is "Knowledge equals reps." It would have come down to Graham learning a slew of new plays and adjusting to new footwork, all within a system that was radically different from his comfort zone. But the system itself, the pieces were there for him to thrive. Screen passes? Check. RPOs? Check. A quarterback-run game, maybe not as frequent, but surprisingly, still a check. The combination of vertical shots and spacing routes, exemplified by the Illinois game in 2020, was something he had already showcased.

In the end, it's a "what could have been" scenario that leaves fans wondering about the untapped potential. But one thing remains clear: Graham Mertz had the skills and the style to make it work in Phil Longo's offense. It's just a shame that we didn't get to witness the full extent of his abilities within that framework.

I wish nothing but the best for Graham Mertz as he continues his football career down in Florida. It's always a little bittersweet when a player you've rooted for moves on, but it's also exciting to see them embrace new opportunities. I hope if he gets a chance to play the Badgers in the post season he lights up the scoreboard for a bit of sweet retribution...ultimately losing in a shootout with Tanner Mordecai of course.