The Hornibrook Line
A wise man once said if you steal from me you've stolen twice, which means if you're looking for fresh content the content you find is likely inspired by or straight up stolen from someone else. Credit where credit is due this piece was inspired by the most recent episode of the Buck Around podcast where Rich coined the term "Hornibrookian". A great throwaway comment that probably wasn't intended to be so inspirational but to me it was and that's why we are here today. So Badger fans, what is an Hornibrookian effort?
Unless you've been living under a rock you would know that Alex Hornibrook is the dictionary definition of the Chryst-era and before quarterback. A Game manager or the type of quarterback that you thank God you have an All-World type running back leading the offense because if we had to put the team on our shoulders and this guy was our quarterback, we'd be in trouble. And so when I think about Alex Hornibrook and I think about standards of quarterback play, it makes me wonder: does Tyler Van Dyke exceed the Hornibrook line? The line that at the top of his game could still only be describe as mediocre. How much effort is it going to have to take for TVD to get there and/rise above it? And what does that translate to in terms of wins and losses?
So let's look at the 2024 schedule here real quick and talk about the type of game that we could expect if we had a Alex Hornibrook was our quarterback. Every game fits into a category with a likely outcome based on past experience. We're going to quantify everything; we're going to put our analytics hat on because you know we love our analytics around here.
First let's take a look at the first two games: Western Michigan and South Dakota. I kind of put them both in the same category as the mid-major tune up game. Western Michigan is a lower-end MAC school and South Dakota is an elite FCS program, so they're basically the same in terms of talent and overall challenge. These are the type of teams that Hornibrook and the typical Badger quarterbacks would pad their stats with. You know, they'd come out and they'd be in the 250 yards and three touchdowns kind of range in those first two games. Games to really set their seasons off and really pad those early stats. When you would look at the end of year stats and you see a 25-12 TD to INT ratio you think it's a solid season until you realize that 10 of those TDs came in the 3 non-conference games.
Which leads us into Alabama. Alabama is not going to be like LSU was back in the day, an SEC school with a high preseason ranking that is there just because they're an SEC school and you have to put an extra one in the top 10, and by the end of the year, they're 8-4 and that's not Alabama. Alabama's going to be Alabama. Alabama with all the problems that they're going to face this year; new coach, a lot of transfers, etc, they're still going to go 10-2 in the regular season and probably going to be in the playoffs. To me Alabama is comparable back in the day to the high-powered Ohio States of the world where we would struggle to have less than 50% completion percentage and maybe 120 yards passing with twice as many interceptions as touchdowns. What do you think Tyler Van Dyke's going to do against Alabama? Does he rise above what we were satisfied with as Badger fans for decades from the QB position?
Next up we got USC. With USC I'm still treating them like a non-conference as they are in their first first year in the B1G. The Trojans are that type of team who are overrated solely based on their name and today they are ranked highly because of their name. I think they go out in their first three games and go undefeated they're probably in the top 15, maybe even top 10, before they face the Badgers. USC beats up on some cupcakes and that's the reason to move them up in the rankings. In these types of games a typical Wisconsin QB would either hover around the Hornibrook Line with an efficient 16 for 20 kind of a day behind the strength of a solid ground attack, or like Alex did against Miami in the Orange Bowl, pull off a stunner and throw for four touchdowns. So in an effort to not sound all doom and gloom let's rise above and give a Orange Bowl performance in LA and pad those stats.
Now we are on to the typical B1G stretch of the season where you got those prototypical mid-level B1G teams that kind of that would help pad the standings on the way to the B1G West title with Purdue, Rutgers, and Northwestern. Let's face it we were cursed playing against Northwestern in Evanston back in the day and I would expect the same if we brought old school Badgers QB play to the Pill Box by the Lake. And so in that kind of stretch, you're probably going to end up seeing everything kind of average out. We're going to have about the same amount of touchdowns as interceptions, we're going to have one good game, we're going to have one bad game, and we're going to have a right-down-the-middle game that the running game is going to take over. So that's that middle end of the season and now it's time to get into the meat of the conference season.
Looking ahead to Penn State and Iowa with yesteryear goggles on in those type of games there were two likely t ways those games were going to turn out: either they're just going to load the box against your typical Wisconsin quarterback and make him beat you, and in turn, he's going to throw 40–50 passes, complete 24 of them, and throw three picks, or it's going to be the type of game where they don't throw a lot, but they throw a lot off of the running game. They use the running game to their advantage, and they're efficient. Game managers might a decent stat line, but nothing game-breaking.
Oregon is to that team we would face in a bowl game as a reward for going 6-3 in the B1G, beating up on the crap teams and losing to all the top 25 teams. A 9-10 win P4 program that would take advantage of our lack of athletic ability and win a track meet. Oregon's that type of school, and we're going to struggle because they're going to have the speed to just match everybody up on the outside, and again, those are the type of games that we would struggle with in the past, and Alex definitely would.
Okay, and then our last two games against Nebraska and Minnesota. We're going to have a workman's game against Nebraska. Going to be a lot like last year. Okay, again, for when in a typical Wisconsin year, it was up to the running game to beat those schools and then opportunistic passing games off of that. And that's what we would have to do against Nebraska, and it's what we will do against Minnesota. Still think we can win those games.
So, this season is really shaping up to be a typical Wisconsin season as much as we're hyper-focused on the rankings of the teams going into these games. And so what to me that really gives us an opportunity is to show growth in the Wisconsin passing game? What is going to show growth in quarterback play at Wisconsin? And to do that, you have to rise above expectations, you have to rise above the norms. So that's why we looked at the season through the lens of Alex Hornibrook.
So what does the Hornibrook line (on the optimistic side) look like with a schedule like this and the type of teams that we're going to play against? I see this as having a Hornibrook line of going 180 for 299, a 60.2% completion percentage for 2,430 yards, 25 touchdowns, but 13 interceptions. Let's ask some questions based off those numbers. If Tyler Van Dyke came out and threw 25 touchdowns would you be disappointed? If he was any other Wisconsin QB not named Russell Wilson you would be through the roof excited. If he threw 13 interceptions, would you be calling for his head? Why? You were ok with that number just a few years ago.
College football has changed. If we are going to grow into a CFP level program then we need to elevate our QBs above the Hornibrook Line. For so long we conveniently ignored mediocre QB play because we had a superstar in the backfield that could (most of the time) carry the team. The game has change that the one man show needs a supporting cast and every position must contribute to winning.